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Green FAQ's
Green FAQ's


If we immediately stopped emitting greenhouses gases, would global warming stop?

Are there natural processes that can amplify or limit global warming?

Can global warming lead to an ice age?


Question If we immediately stopped emitting greenhouses gases, would global warming stop?

  • Not right away. The Earth’s surface temperature does not react instantaneously to the energy imbalance created by rising carbon dioxide levels. This delayed reaction occurs because a great deal of the excess energy is stored in the ocean, which has a tremendous heat capacity. Because of this lag (which scientists call “thermal inertia”), even the 0.6–0.9 degrees of global warming we have observed in the past century is not the full amount of warming we can expect from the greenhouse gases we have already emitted. Even if all emissions were to stop today, the Earth’s average surface temperature would climb another 0.6 degrees or so over the next several decades before temperatures stopped rising.

    The time lag is one reason why there is a risk in waiting to control greenhouse gas emissions until global warming becomes worse or its effects more serious and obvious. If we wait until we feel the amount or impact of global warming has reached an intolerable level, we will not be able to “hold the line” at that point; some further warming will be unavoidable.
     



Question Are there natural processes that can amplify or limit global warming?

  • Yes. Changes in one part of the climate system trigger processes that may either amplify the initial change or counteract it. With a positive climate feedback, warming triggers changes that cause more warming. With a negative climate feedback, warming triggers changes that lead to cooling.

    The most fundamental negative (cooling) feedback is that the Earth radiates heat into space based on its temperature. The relationship between temperature and radiated heat is such that an increase in temperature is accompanied by an even bigger increase in radiated heat. The feedback does not prevent temperature from rising, but it slows the rate of temperature increase (or decrease) that a given energy imbalance can cause. The radiative feedback allows the Earth to achieve a new balanced (equilibrated) state in response to a change in surface temperature.

    The other key feedbacks are water vapor, snow and ice, and clouds. Warming temperatures increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Because water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, it amplifies warming. Decreases in snow and ice make the Earth less reflective to incoming sunlight, also amplifying warming. Changes in clouds may either amplify or limit global warming, depending on where (latitude and altitude) and when (time of year) changes occur. Nearly all climate models scientists use today predict that net cloud feedbacks will either be neutral or positive (warming), but such predictions are still uncertain.

    Numerous other feedbacks also exist. Warmer temperatures may decrease the rate at which the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide. Global currents that distribute heat among the world’s oceans may change because of temperature and salinity changes. Expansion or contractions of global vegetation can influence the reflection and absorption of incoming sunlight, the flow of energy and moisture between the surface and the air, and the carbon cycle. With the exception of not knowing precisely how much humans will do to control greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades, the strength of climate feedbacks—especially cloud feedbacks—is the biggest source of uncertainty in predictions of future climate.
     



Question Can global warming lead to an ice age?

  • According to the best available science, this is very unlikely. Here’s why:

    Around the globe, a natural ocean “conveyor belt” slowly winds its way through the oceans, helping to regulate our planet’s climate. For example, it brings warm waters from the tropics to the North Atlantic, making places like Iceland and Western Europe warm enough to be comfortable.

    As Earth’s average temperature increases due to global warming, melting glaciers and increased rainfall and runoff will inject additional freshwater into the North Atlantic. The saltiness of the conveyor current is critical for maintaining the flow, and an influx of freshwater, which significantly reduces the salinity of the North Atlantic branch of the current, can slow the movement of the conveyor belt. In theory, a major reduction or halting of this flow—especially if it happened suddenly enough—could destabilize the global climate, causing some regions of the globe to become much cooler, even as average global temperatures continue to increase.

    However, the general climate conditions during the two most recent episodes of abrupt cooling were vastly different than they are today. For instance, those episodes were probably triggered by sudden, massive injections of freshwater into the North Atlantic, released when melting ice dams collapsed and vast quantities of freshwater from pent-up glacial lakes were rapidly dumped into the ocean. That can’t happen today, because those lakes are all long gone.

    There is some evidence that the water in the North Atlantic seems to be growing less salty due to global warming and that the conveyor belt may be slowing. But scientists currently believe that even if part of the ocean conveyor were to fail, it wouldn’t be for several decades, and any cooling effects would be overpowered by the continued general warming over the same period.

    There is little disagreement that the real concern is climate warming, which is real and will have serious consequences. That’s what we need to worry about—and work to fix—right now.
     




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